Hard Power on the Rise
Erosion of the Rules-Based Order
In our H1 2024: Long Term Conflict Trends insight, we examined how the decline of US hegemony and Washington’s growing reluctance to act as ‘world police’ was inviting other actors to increasingly circumvent the modern rules-based international order under the belief that there is little political will among regional or global powers to stop them. This lack of political will to uphold the very system the US shaped and promoted - designed to encourage peace and security by preventing illegitimate takeovers of power - was most clearly reflected in former President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and its subsequent collapse. However, under President Donald Trump, this trend is being turbocharged. Trump’s open disdain for the existing international framework signals an accelerated shift toward a more transactional, power-driven world - one where “might makes right” and the law of the jungle increasingly dictates global affairs.
Global Shift in Government Priorities
In response to the military aggression of Russia in Ukraine, China’s relentlessly growing defence budget and regional assertiveness, and Donald Trump’s isolationist, realpolitik approach to foreign policy, other global powers have begun to read the room, prioritising the build-up of their own hard power (military strength, security spending, and economic coercion), often at the expense of their soft power (cultural influence, diplomacy & multilateral engagement, and foreign aid & economic development).
Both the UK and France for example have made painful cuts to their aid budgets. In February 2025, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a reduction in the UK's Official Development Assistance (ODA) budget from 0.5% to 0.3% of GNI by 2027. This decision aims to fund an increase in defence spending, with plans to raise annual defence expenditure to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, and an eventual target of 3%.
In September 2024, it was reported that France intended to conduct an 18% cut to its ODA to tackle its soaring public deficit - the third cut in the last two years - months after it adopted a EUR 413bn military budget for 2024-2030, its most significant spending increase in decades. By March 2025, less than eight weeks after Trump’s inauguration, French President Emmanuel Macron called for France and other European nations to dramatically increase yearly defence spending towards a target exceeding 3% of GDP.
Considering so many countries around the world have long relied on the US security umbrella, a global surge in defence spending is to be expected as they scramble to safeguard their security and independence. And as already witnessed, even amongst the world’s historically biggest aid contributors, funding for international development and humanitarian aid routinely becomes one of the first cuts to be made, as soft power takes the back seat.
Hard Power Increases Global Insecurity
While bolstering defence capabilities may address immediate security concerns, the reduction in foreign aid and diplomatic engagement will undermine efforts to tackle the root causes of conflict and instability, such as poverty, lack of education, and poor governance. Thus a shift towards the prioritisation of hard power over soft power will also have profound implications for the prospects of war, geopolitical stability, and global security. Some key concerns include:
Weakening of Conflict Prevention Mechanisms:
Soft power mechanisms like foreign aid, economic cooperation, and international diplomacy are crucial in preventing conflicts before they start.
By reducing investments in international development and humanitarian aid, countries increase global instability, particularly in fragile states where poverty and poor governance create conditions for extremism and insurgencies. Following Donald Trump’s 90-day suspension of all US foreign development assistance programs and subsequent attempt to initiate a cut to USAID funding of over 90% (USD 54bn), should he eventually get his way, it will have profound impacts on global stability, as USAID plays a critical role in addressing the root causes of conflict and insecurity.
The decline in mediation-focused organisations such as the United Nations’ or regional diplomatic initiatives leaves fewer avenues for non-military conflict resolution.
Increased Likelihood of Conflict:
As nations prioritise military spending and expansion over diplomatic engagement, the risk of direct military confrontations rises.
History shows that militarisation without strong diplomatic mechanisms increases the likelihood of war.
Escalation dynamics become more dangerous when states lack soft power tools to de-escalate tensions, leading to a world where military posturing is the default response to crises.
When major powers build up their military, regional neighbours often respond in kind, creating arms races that heighten tensions and the probability of miscalculations that could lead to unintended wars.
As major powers invest more in hard power, smaller nations increasingly see nuclear weapons as the only reliable deterrent against potential aggression.
Declining Global Governance and Cooperation:
The shift away from soft power weakens international institutions that rely on diplomacy and cooperation.
Bodies like the World Trade Organization (WTO), World Health Organization (WHO), and international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) all suffer when major powers prioritise unilateral action over collaborative global solutions.
Existential risks such as climate change, pandemics, AI development, and cybercrime require multilateral responses, which become harder to coordinate in an environment dominated by unilateralism, militarisation, and zero-sum geopolitical thinking.
The growing likelihood of war, accelerated nuclear proliferation, weakened alliances, rising extremism, and decline of diplomatic mechanisms and international governance bodies all point to a more insecure world prone to greater uncertainty and conflict.
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