H1 2024: Long Term Conflict Trends
US Hegemony in Decline
In the years following the end of the Cold War, with the US established as the world's sole super power, many localised conflicts were either left to themselves or dictated by the actions of the US/West, e.g. the interventionist actions in Iraq/Kuwait, Somalia, Yugoslavia, and Haiti. However, as American hegemony appears on the decline, multiple conflict-affected landscapes and disputed territories appear ever more likely to draw in actors willing to challenge the status quo and test Western resolve. Nothing epitomises this quite as well as Russia’s decision to go to war with Ukraine, China’s claims and aggressive maritime actions in the South China Sea, or Iran’s state-sponsored backing of dozens of terrorist organisations that conduct attacks on US interests. As the geopolitical scene appears set towards a multipolar world, a second Cold War riddled with proxy conflicts is to be expected.
Diplomacy in Decline
As US hegemony begins to falter, diplomacy, an international relations tool heavily advocated by the democratic world, also appears to be failing across the 2023/2024 geopolitical landscape, with more leaders determined to resolve issues militarily. Lacklustre diplomatic efforts at the start of the Sudan War saw countless ceasefire agreements being broken in minutes; in Myanmar, both the junta and the rebels remain committed to their causes and uninterested in compromise; popular support among Ukrainians and Russians to keep fighting for victory remains unwavering; and tensions in the Middle East, albeit markedly improved by the 2023 Iranian-Saudi rapprochement, appear to be escalating further and further following Israel’s invasion of Gaza and the seemingly endless tit-for-tat attacks with Iran (and its sponsored armed groups).
Most diplomatic efforts in these regions are limited to managing immediate crises, such as negotiating humanitarian aid or prisoner swaps, rather than seeking comprehensive political solutions. Where conflicts have ceased, the cessation is more often the result of military victories rather than diplomatic negotiations. In Afghanistan we saw the Taliban quickly take over the country, primarily as a result of US foreign policy to finally withdraw after 20 years of fighting. In Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's agreement with Tigray's rebels in late 2022 was more about consolidating his victory than discussing the region's future governance. And in Nagorno-Karabakh, (renewed) conflict was over before it had even begun, due to Azerbaijan's recent military actions.
Organisations working in countries where the spectre of war hovers, should incorporate into their risk calculus the decreasing likelihood that any such conflict would be resolved quickly or diplomatically. Indeed, we have seen how tenuous ceasefire agreements in Afghanistan and Sudan led to perilous evacuations for foreign workers trapped inside. While organisations with operations in Russia, potentially working off the incorrect assumption that the war in Ukraine would end swiftly, found their reputations increasingly tarnished or their businesses seized by the Russian government amid a clampdown on Western-owned assets in Russia as the war dragged on.
Expanding Conflicts
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was symptomatic of its declining hegemonic role and willingness to acts as ‘global policeman’, driven by a growing concern of its rivals’ strength, reduced reliance on foreign energy imports, and a desire to consolidate its power on priority areas of the globe - ensuring the most important American interests abroad remained secure - and not getting involved in places where US interests are deemed of low importance or concern.
As the US’ ‘global policeman’ role declines, an increasing number of non-state and state actors will continue to challenge established norms, orders, and agreements. As the number of players willing to enter the game multiplies - which also includes US allies who feel the need to fill the void left by the US - conflicts will increase in number, participants, and length (as they become more complicated and difficult to resolve).
Following the Kremlin’s decision to place Russia’s economy on a long term war footing, it has served to convince many Western nations to shift their policy towards increasing their own combat readiness and to re-evaluate the extent of military aid to Ukraine. Last year, supposed red lines relating to the delivery of Western tanks and missiles to Ukraine were crossed, and this year we will see American-made F-16s warplanes, piloted by Western-trained Ukrainian pilots, arrive on the battlefield in yet another escalation of the conflict. But no escalation would be quite as significant as the potential future arrival of Western troops to Ukraine, as hinted by several European heads of state, including France this year.
Ukraine’s ability to draw support from abroad, saw Russia attempt to do the same, however, this too drew a reaction. In the months following Russia’s decision to procure critical munitions supplies from North Korea, Japan and South Korea increased their involvement by massively upping their donations to Ukraine, unhappy with Russia’s suspected arms deal with North Korea, breaking its diplomatic isolation. Once again, demonstrating how easy and often escalatory acts pull in additional stakeholders and raise the ante.
In the Middle East, the risk of spillover is most salient, with the region long stuck in a self-perpetuating cycle of escalation. Like in Ukraine, actions by one party routinely prompt escalatory counteractions by others, which then lead to rising tensions, red lines being crossed, and new actors compelled to enter the fray, complicating any efforts of a resolution evermore.
Confident of Iran’s role in supplying its enemies, Israel continues to conduct attacks on Iranian assets across the region, including in Syria, where it risks engaging with Russian interventionist forces deployed to strengthen the Assad regime - at a time when Israeli-Russian relations are at a low. In-turn, Iran continues to retaliate to these attacks, often employing its so-called “Axis of Resistance”, an informal Iranian-led coalition of political and military groups present across West Asia and North Africa, that are often responsible for conducting indiscriminate attacks that inadvertently risk drawing in other players. This quarter saw Houthi militant attacks continue off the coast of Yemen into the Red Sea, of which many failed to identify properly that the ships it was attacking were affiliated with Israel. This inevitably saw Operation Prosperity Guardian gradually attract more states to the Red Sea naval task force to protect their maritime trade after their shipping had been attacked.
The side effects associated with the growing multipolar world means conflicts like the ones in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with many others around the world, now nearly always degenerate into the same patterns of escalation, spillover, and prolongation. In the face of this increasingly unstable and violent geopolitical landscape, international organisations require vigilant monitoring, expert analysis, and adaptive risk mitigation strategies.
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