H2 2024: Security Trends in West Africa
Peter Kole Attack
On 1 November 2024, Jamalat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) attacked a military-escorted commercial convoy near Petel Kole in the Tillabéri Region, Niger, killing at least 20 people. This latest incident reflects the escalating threat posed by Islamist militants in the region to both military forces and commercial routes.
Petel Kole, previously attacked by Islamic State-Sahel Province (IS-SP) on 17 March 2022, remains a hotspot for militant activity. Commercial convoys face increasing risks, including extortion, violence, and harassment by both militants and government officials. These attacks highlight the vulnerability of Niger’s key trade arteries, which are critical for the supply of essential goods.
Trade and Security Challenges
Sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following Niger's 26 July 2023 coup have exacerbated the country’s trade difficulties, forcing reliance on more perilous routes through Burkina Faso and Mali. Diplomatic tensions with Benin, severing access to Cotonou port - which once handled 80% of Niger’s imports - have further strained logistics. Truckers now depend on the longer, riskier route to Lomé, Togo. The Union of Transport Workers and Related Workers (UTTAN) has condemned these developments, calling for enhanced security along vital routes. However, as witnessed by the November attack, military escorts can be ineffective at deterring attacks by well-armed actors like IS-SP and JNIM.
Militant Activity and Strategic Impact
Since the coup, attacks on infrastructure have surged. Targets include the Samira Hill gold mine, the Kandadji dam construction site, and pipelines attacked by the Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL). These actions by Islamist militants and anti-junta groups aim to destabilize Niger's military government and disrupt economic activities. JNIM's strategy is clear: to create a governance vacuum in Tillabéri and Tahoua by undermining military and commercial stability.
Emerging Developments
Despite these challenges, some progress is evident:
A partial easing of trade restrictions with Benin, announced on 21 November 2024, may alleviate pressure on Niger’s commercial routes.
The Nigerien government is expected to increase military escorts for convoys, potentially introducing air support to deter attacks.
External Influences
Russia’s capacity to support its West African partners, including Niger and Burkina Faso, is under strain following the collapse of the Syrian regime. The loss of logistical hubs like the Tartus naval base complicates its ability to project military power in Africa. While Russia is reallocating resources to its bases in Libya, long-term support to Nigerien and Burkinabe governments may be limited, affecting their counterterrorism efforts.
In the near term, attacks on commercial convoys and infrastructure by Islamist militants are likely to persist, necessitating robust security responses. While limited diplomatic progress offers hope, the broader security landscape across much of West Africa remains precarious, driven by both local instability and international dynamics.
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